Saturday, February 23, 2008
When Betting On NFL, Look At Straight Up Winners First
Before you start betting on NFL games in the 2006/07, lets do a pointspread postmortem of the 2005/06 season. So wash up, put on your scrubs, make like Kay Scarpetta or Temperence Brennan (or any other medical examiner on your fiction reading list) and get your scalpel ready.
The first cut reveals that of the 12 NFL teams that qualified for the post-season, the not-so-dirty dozen was a combined 112-74-6 (.602) against the spread (ATS) and not one of them had a losing record against the points.
Coincidence? Probably not.
In fact, forensics reveal that of the 16 NFL teams which posted winning straight up (SU) records during the regular season, 12 of them also had winning marks ATS. Two teams with winning records SU, the Patriots and Buccaneers, broke even against the number while just two others that were above .500 on the field, the Dolphins and Cowboys, had losing records, though barely, (7-9) ATS.
On the other cleat, of the 15 teams that posted losing records on the field, 13 of them also were losers ATS. Only the Lions had a winning record ATS while the Browns broke even at 8-8 ATS.
Only one team in the league, the Falcons, finished with .500 record both SU and ATS.
So what does it all mean?
It appears that the best way of betting on NFL games is to find a straight up winner first.
Easier said than done.
For example, at this time a year ago, Philadelphia was the hot team and it was Head Coach Andy Reid, not Pittsburgh's Bill Cowher, who was expected to join New England's Bill Belichick as the next NFL coaching "genius" (or, as Joe Theisman might say, a "Norman Einstein").
Last February there was no indication that the Eagles, who began the season as +575 favorite (bet $100 to win $575) in Super Bowl futures at online sportsbooks would be anything but prime contenders for a second straight NFL title game appearance. The Falcons, Rams, Packers, Jets and Ravens also were expected to be formidable playoff threats again this season. Not one of those six teams even managed a winning record.
Given the failure of Philadelphia, Atlanta, St. Louis, Green Bay, the NY Jets and Baltimore, could bettors reasonably have latched their pointspread fortunes to the Giants, the Chiefs or the Seahawks, the three teams with the best records against the betting line last season?
Probably not because as the results indicate, it's not just teams with winning records that beat the spread, it's surprising teams, teams that play better than expected, that emerge as pointspread stalwarts.
So while this analysis may be intriguing, perhaps even interesting to some, sadly, an autopsy of last season's pointspread results provides few clues as to which teams will flourish against the spread in this years NFL campaign.
After all the splicing and dicing, successful betting on NFL still comes down to a fundamental game-by-game analysis. No matter how you cut it, hard work, skill, talent, money management and a lot of luck will trump a postmortem trend, any time.
ACTUAL 2005 NFL SEASON RECORD VERSUS POINTSPREAD RECORD
Team W-L ATS PCT.
New York Giants 11-5 11-4-1 .733
Seattle Seahawks 13-3 11-5 .688
Kansas City Chiefs 10-6 11-5 .688
Denver Broncos 13-3 10-5-1 .667
Jacksonville Jaguars 12-4 10-5-1 .667
Chicago Bears 11-5 9-5-2 .642
Washington Redskins 10-6 10-6 .625
San Diego Chargers 9-7 9-6-1 .600
Indianapolis Colts 14-2 9-7 .563
Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5 9-7 .563
Carolina Panthers 11-5 9-7 .563
Minnesota Vikings 9-7 9-7 .563
Detroit Lions 5-11 9-7 .563
Cincinnati Bengals 11-5 8-7-1 .533
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11-5 8-8 .500
New England Patriots 10-6 8-8 .500
Atlanta Falcons 8-8 8-8 .500
Cleveland Browns 6-10 8-8 .500
Dallas Cowboys 9-7 7-9 .438
Miami Dolphins 9-7 7-9 .438
Baltimore Ravens6-10 7-9 .438
Buffalo Bills 5-11 7-9 .438
San Francisco 49ers 4-12 7-9 .438
Tennessee Titans 4-12 7-9 .438
Arizona Cardinals 5-11 6-10 .375
Green Bay Packers 4-12 5-10-1 .333
Oakland Raiders 4-12 5-10-1 .333
New Orleans Saints 4-12 5-10-1 .333
Philadelphia Eagles 6-10 5-11 .313
St. Louis Rams 6-10 5-11 .313
New York Jets 4-12 5-11 .313
By Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com/. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbook where Betting on NFL: http://www.thegreek.com/ is easy with free membership. Please link to this site when using this article.
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The first cut reveals that of the 12 NFL teams that qualified for the post-season, the not-so-dirty dozen was a combined 112-74-6 (.602) against the spread (ATS) and not one of them had a losing record against the points.
Coincidence? Probably not.
In fact, forensics reveal that of the 16 NFL teams which posted winning straight up (SU) records during the regular season, 12 of them also had winning marks ATS. Two teams with winning records SU, the Patriots and Buccaneers, broke even against the number while just two others that were above .500 on the field, the Dolphins and Cowboys, had losing records, though barely, (7-9) ATS.
On the other cleat, of the 15 teams that posted losing records on the field, 13 of them also were losers ATS. Only the Lions had a winning record ATS while the Browns broke even at 8-8 ATS.
Only one team in the league, the Falcons, finished with .500 record both SU and ATS.
So what does it all mean?
It appears that the best way of betting on NFL games is to find a straight up winner first.
Easier said than done.
For example, at this time a year ago, Philadelphia was the hot team and it was Head Coach Andy Reid, not Pittsburgh's Bill Cowher, who was expected to join New England's Bill Belichick as the next NFL coaching "genius" (or, as Joe Theisman might say, a "Norman Einstein").
Last February there was no indication that the Eagles, who began the season as +575 favorite (bet $100 to win $575) in Super Bowl futures at online sportsbooks would be anything but prime contenders for a second straight NFL title game appearance. The Falcons, Rams, Packers, Jets and Ravens also were expected to be formidable playoff threats again this season. Not one of those six teams even managed a winning record.
Given the failure of Philadelphia, Atlanta, St. Louis, Green Bay, the NY Jets and Baltimore, could bettors reasonably have latched their pointspread fortunes to the Giants, the Chiefs or the Seahawks, the three teams with the best records against the betting line last season?
Probably not because as the results indicate, it's not just teams with winning records that beat the spread, it's surprising teams, teams that play better than expected, that emerge as pointspread stalwarts.
So while this analysis may be intriguing, perhaps even interesting to some, sadly, an autopsy of last season's pointspread results provides few clues as to which teams will flourish against the spread in this years NFL campaign.
After all the splicing and dicing, successful betting on NFL still comes down to a fundamental game-by-game analysis. No matter how you cut it, hard work, skill, talent, money management and a lot of luck will trump a postmortem trend, any time.
ACTUAL 2005 NFL SEASON RECORD VERSUS POINTSPREAD RECORD
Team W-L ATS PCT.
New York Giants 11-5 11-4-1 .733
Seattle Seahawks 13-3 11-5 .688
Kansas City Chiefs 10-6 11-5 .688
Denver Broncos 13-3 10-5-1 .667
Jacksonville Jaguars 12-4 10-5-1 .667
Chicago Bears 11-5 9-5-2 .642
Washington Redskins 10-6 10-6 .625
San Diego Chargers 9-7 9-6-1 .600
Indianapolis Colts 14-2 9-7 .563
Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5 9-7 .563
Carolina Panthers 11-5 9-7 .563
Minnesota Vikings 9-7 9-7 .563
Detroit Lions 5-11 9-7 .563
Cincinnati Bengals 11-5 8-7-1 .533
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11-5 8-8 .500
New England Patriots 10-6 8-8 .500
Atlanta Falcons 8-8 8-8 .500
Cleveland Browns 6-10 8-8 .500
Dallas Cowboys 9-7 7-9 .438
Miami Dolphins 9-7 7-9 .438
Baltimore Ravens6-10 7-9 .438
Buffalo Bills 5-11 7-9 .438
San Francisco 49ers 4-12 7-9 .438
Tennessee Titans 4-12 7-9 .438
Arizona Cardinals 5-11 6-10 .375
Green Bay Packers 4-12 5-10-1 .333
Oakland Raiders 4-12 5-10-1 .333
New Orleans Saints 4-12 5-10-1 .333
Philadelphia Eagles 6-10 5-11 .313
St. Louis Rams 6-10 5-11 .313
New York Jets 4-12 5-11 .313
By Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com/. The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbook where Betting on NFL: http://www.thegreek.com/ is easy with free membership. Please link to this site when using this article.
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Cincinnati Schools Curb Spending
The Superintendent of the Cincinnati Schools recommended a budget for the 2007-2008 school year that is lower than the current budget by about $308 thousand dollars. This budget will mean that the Cincinnati Schools must continue to curb their spending, and direct the majority of the funds towards the educational basics: teachers, supplies and buildings. This budget focuses support on the Cincinnati Schools five year strategic plan. This plan was unanimously approved by the Board of Education in April. Cincinnati Schools believe that if they direct resources to the best teaching practices, then academic performance of students will improve. The budget also means the Cincinnati Schools need to balance a reduction in staffing.
The Cincinnati Schools made a commitment in 2004 that they would undertake efforts to lower costs dramatically, and to make sure staffing was in line with enrollment. Personnel cuts were made in the 2007-2008 General Operating Budget to make sure that this goal was accomplished. The new budget also reflects reductions in spending that are non-personnel related. It includes operational costs that the Cincinnati Schools made possible by closing two elementary schools and merging two others.
In order to achieve this budget and to make it workable the Cincinnati Schools used a zero-based budgeting process again this year for expenditures which were not personnel related. Each expenditure had to go through a justification process to ensure that it was necessary to support operations and education. By using this method the Cincinnati Schools were able to offer a slightly lower the budget without jeopardizing vital functions.
Through these measures, the district is able to keep spending slightly below last years. The cost-reduction measures also make it possible for Cincinnati Schools to extend the life of its most recent operating levy. The Cincinnati Schools approved a levy in November 2000 that was supposed to last for four years. But without further cost cutting procedures there will be shortages in the 2008-2009 school year. The recommendations show the Cincinnati Schools commitment to supporting the strategic plan through better academic processes and better management efficiency. There were several priorities to be implemented through continued, redirected, or grant funding. Federal funding for Cincinnati Schools will now be pooled with the general operating fund to support better strategic planning which will do away with the need for duplicate bookkeeping.
The Budget Commission of the Cincinnati Schools contributed greatly to the development of this budget. Also, an advisory group of parents, teachers, and administrators provided information, ideas, and feedback to ensure that despite the budget cuts the education of the children of Cincinnati Schools would not be adversely affected.
Patricia Hawke is a staff writer for Schools K-12, providing free, in-depth reports on all U.S. public and private K-12 schools. For more information please visit http://www.schoolsk-12.com/Ohio/Cincinnati/index.html
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The Cincinnati Schools made a commitment in 2004 that they would undertake efforts to lower costs dramatically, and to make sure staffing was in line with enrollment. Personnel cuts were made in the 2007-2008 General Operating Budget to make sure that this goal was accomplished. The new budget also reflects reductions in spending that are non-personnel related. It includes operational costs that the Cincinnati Schools made possible by closing two elementary schools and merging two others.
In order to achieve this budget and to make it workable the Cincinnati Schools used a zero-based budgeting process again this year for expenditures which were not personnel related. Each expenditure had to go through a justification process to ensure that it was necessary to support operations and education. By using this method the Cincinnati Schools were able to offer a slightly lower the budget without jeopardizing vital functions.
Through these measures, the district is able to keep spending slightly below last years. The cost-reduction measures also make it possible for Cincinnati Schools to extend the life of its most recent operating levy. The Cincinnati Schools approved a levy in November 2000 that was supposed to last for four years. But without further cost cutting procedures there will be shortages in the 2008-2009 school year. The recommendations show the Cincinnati Schools commitment to supporting the strategic plan through better academic processes and better management efficiency. There were several priorities to be implemented through continued, redirected, or grant funding. Federal funding for Cincinnati Schools will now be pooled with the general operating fund to support better strategic planning which will do away with the need for duplicate bookkeeping.
The Budget Commission of the Cincinnati Schools contributed greatly to the development of this budget. Also, an advisory group of parents, teachers, and administrators provided information, ideas, and feedback to ensure that despite the budget cuts the education of the children of Cincinnati Schools would not be adversely affected.
Patricia Hawke is a staff writer for Schools K-12, providing free, in-depth reports on all U.S. public and private K-12 schools. For more information please visit http://www.schoolsk-12.com/Ohio/Cincinnati/index.html
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